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In 2021, my country's photovoltaic industry will continue to advance
triumphantly. The output of photovoltaic modules has ranked first in the world
for 15 consecutive years, the output of polysilicon has ranked first in the
world for 11 consecutive years, the newly installed capacity has ranked first in
the world for 9 consecutive years, and the cumulative installed capacity has
ranked first in the world for 7 consecutive years. No. 1 in the world. In
addition, rapid progress has been made in terms of output value and export. In
2021, the output value of my country's photovoltaic manufacturing end
(polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, modules) will exceed 750 billion yuan, the
export value of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, cells, modules) will
exceed 28 billion US dollars, a record high, and the newly installed capacity
will reach 54.88GW , Although lower than expected at the beginning of the year,
it still reached a record high, surpassing 53GW in 2017, and the cumulative
installed capacity exceeded 300GW; in 2021, the proportion of distributed
installed capacity exceeded 50%.

(1) The application market hits a record high

In 2021, my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity, distributed
installed capacity, household installed capacity, and the proportion of
distributed installed capacity in the total installed capacity will all hit
record highs. my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 54.88GW, a
year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Among them, distributed installed capacity was
about 29.28GW, accounting for 53.4% of all new installed capacity, breaking
through 50% for the first time in history. In 2021, household installed capacity
will reach 21.6GW, a year-on-year increase of 113.3%, accounting for 39.4% of my
country's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021. Photovoltaic power
generation was 325.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%. The national
utilization hours were 1163 hours, a year-on-year increase of 3 hours. The
utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation was 98%, which was basically
the same as that of the previous year. The photovoltaic consumption level in
Xinjiang, Tibet and other places has increased significantly. The photovoltaic
utilization rate increased by 2.8% and 5.6% respectively year-on-year.

(2) Rapid expansion of manufacturing scale

Despite the impact of unfavorable factors such as price fluctuations in the
supply chain, complex and severe external environment, and uncertainties, the
scale of my country's photovoltaic manufacturing sector will continue to expand
rapidly in 2021. In 2021, my country's polysilicon output will reach 505,000
tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and silicon wafer output will be about
227GW, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The output of solar cells was 198GW, a
year-on-year increase of 46.9%, the largest increase. Module output was 182GW, a
year-on-year increase of 46.1%.

(3) Industrial/technological development presents new features

In terms of polysilicon, the production energy consumption has been
significantly reduced. The average comprehensive power consumption of the
industry has dropped to 63kWh/kg-Si, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and the
average reduction power consumption is 46kWh/kg-Si, a year-on-year decrease of
6.1%. The industrialization scale of granular silicon has expanded. Due to the
improvement of production technology and the expansion of downstream
applications, the market share of granular silicon will reach 4.1% in 2021, an
increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, a number of new
entrants have emerged in the industry, including Baofeng Energy planning 600,000
tons of production capacity, Qinghai Lihao planning 200,000 tons of production
capacity, Jiangsu Runyang planning 100,000 tons, Xinjiang Jingnuo planning
100,000 tons, Hoshine Silicon Industry Planning 200,000 tons, etc., new entrants
will not only inject more vitality into the industry, but also further intensify
competition in the industry. In terms of silicon wafers, the development trend
of large size and thinning is obvious. The combined proportion of silicon wafers
with a size of 182mm and 210mm has increased to 45%; In addition, due to the
increase in the size of the thermal field and the number of drawn rods, the
feeding capacity of a single furnace for drawing rods will reach 2,800kg in
2021, a significant increase of 47.4% year-on-year. In terms of batteries,
n-type batteries are advancing faster, and companies have begun to deploy mass
production lines; companies have strengthened vertical integration layouts: for
example, Runyang has deployed silicon materials, Tongwei has deployed silicon
wafers, Longi, Jinko, Trina, and JA Solar , Canadian Solar, Chint, etc. expanded
cell production capacity; in addition, the average conversion efficiency of
p-type PERC produced on a large scale reached 23.1%, an increase of 0.3
percentage points year-on-year. In terms of components, the maximum power will
be further increased from 600W in 2020 to 700W in 2021. The gap between leading
enterprises and medium-sized enterprises will further widen. Perovskite has also
triggered a round of investment boom. , GCL Optoelectronics completed a new
round of financing of over 100 million yuan.

(4) Leading enterprises have obvious advantages in scale

In terms of industrial concentration, as a subdivision with a relatively low
concentration in the past, the CR5 of the component market has increased from
42.8% to 63.4%, the largest increase. The concentration of polysilicon and cells
has not changed much, and the concentration of silicon wafers has declined. The
gap between the leading enterprises in the component sector and the second-tier
enterprises has further widened, and the development of polysilicon and cells
has been balanced. For the silicon wafer sector, although the average output of
the TOP5 has risen sharply, the output of non-TOP5 second-tier enterprises has
also appeared rapid development, that is, the gap between leading companies and
second-tier companies has narrowed, so CR5 has dropped. The scale advantage of
leading enterprises is even more obvious. In the silicon wafer, battery wafer
and module market, the average output growth rate of the top five enterprises in
terms of production has exceeded 60% year-on-year, and the highest can reach
67.4%. Although the increase in the average output of TOP5 polysilicon
enterprises in 2021 is relatively low, compared to the situation in which the
output of TOP5 enterprises in 2020 was less than 50,000 tons, the average output
in 2021 exceeded 85,000 tons, and the growth rate of output of leading
enterprises also increased. achieve faster growth.

Baoxinda Energy Technology
wxam.assistant@marketingforce.com

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